Our focus is on risk management rather than fortune telling. The future is unknown and unknowable. We only know that prices will fluctuate and the more they fluctuate the more risk there is. We do our best to assess market risk and help clients manage that risk appropriately. We know from experience that too many producers underestimate market risk at precisely the wrong time.
Each producer is unique. Our first step is to know our clients. Each client has unique financial and psychological ability to bear risk. Part of our job is to help bring these abilities into line with each other. For example, a producer who is "on the edge" financially should probably manage risk conservatively.
Discipline is the key to marketing success. The consistent application of time-tested marketing discipline is likely to yield the best results for most producers over the long run. We also know that too many producers allow their emotions to guide their marketing efforts at the very time that iron discipline and adherence to a marketing plan is what is needed.
We rely on fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis. Our fundamental analysis focuses on determining upside and downside price potential based on the historical relationship between prices and supply-demand fundamentals. Our technical analysis focuses on identifying long term trends. Seasonal price tendencies are known to everyone who has studied agricultural markets and they play a key role in developing our marketing plans. By considering all these factors when we develop marketing plans, we are diversified in our marketing approach.
Producers face two risks: Sinking the Ship and Missing the Boat. The risk of "Sinking the Ship" is the risk of business failure. Our primary focus with agricultural producers is to help the business survive. The risk of "Missing the Boat" is the risk of missing out on big favorable price moves. While our first concern with producers is business survival, we also develop marketing plans that are flexible and diverse enough to keep producers from "Missing the Boat."
DISCLAIMER: THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
